Thai Dйtente at Risk Over Constitution

BANGKOK—A delicate détente between Thailand's powerful armed forces and a populist government led by the younger sister of ousted leader Thaksin Shinawatra is looking increasingly fragile after the country's parliament Saturday began moves to change the country's military-backed constitution.

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Thailand Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra on Feb. 20.

Lawmakers voted 399 to 199 to take steps toward creating a constitutional drafting assembly, which could potentially undo laws protecting army leaders who organized a 2006 coup that forced Mr. Thaksin from power. Government supporters argue that the changes are needed to help rebalance Thailand's democracy after Mr. Thaksin's sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, was elected prime minister in a landslide last July.

Mr. Thaksin's critics, though, contend that changing the constitution is also a way to enable the former leader back into the country from his bolt-hole in Dubai, where he lives to avoid imprisonment on a corruption conviction that he says is politically motivated. Some opponents also allege that Ms. Yingluck's government intends to use the charter-change process to remove laws that criminalize criticism of the country's revered monarch—an allegation her government denies.

Analysts say the dispute over what to do with the constitution could prove explosive. It could also potentially derail the country's recovery from its worst-ever floods last year, which led the economy to contract more than 10% in the final quarter of the year and raised persistent questions about whether foreign businesses will continue to invest in the country.

"The military is increasingly alarmed over moves by the government to reduce its role, trim its influence and seed the senior command structure with Thaksin loyalists," risk consultancy PSA Asia wrote in a client note. "The civilian government in turn remains chronically fearful of a coup that could occur suddenly and perhaps violently to remove it from power. The chances for miscalculation remain alarmingly high." Thai military officials have repeatedly denied coup rumors in recent years.

Thailand, one of Asia's main manufacturing hubs and a key supplier of electronics and auto parts to the global market, has a seen a series of upheavals over the past several years. In 2008, anti-Thaksin protesters shut down Bangkok's international airport in a bid to prevent a previous government from changing the military-backed charter, which was introduced after a public referendum the year before. In 2010, more than 90 people were killed in clashes between security forces and pro-Thaksin protesters.

After Ms. Yingluck's election, it had appeared that her government and the armed forces were cooperating, notably working together to alleviate the worst of last year's flood crisis.

Tensions have escalated sharply this year, however.

Army chief Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha has waged a high-profile campaign to prevent any changes to the laws protecting King Bhumibol Adulyadej, while members of the opposition Democrat Party have questioned the government's moves to bypass parliament and use executive decrees to speed up its bid to recover from last year's flood.

Mr. Thaksin's supporters, meanwhile, have launched a series of rallies designed to create a show of force in support of the former leader and deter any plans that might be under way to unseat his sister's government.

Thousands of red-shirt supporters, so named for their choice of clothing, gathered in Khao Yai national park northeast of Bangkok on Saturday, where they applauded speeches in favor of constitutional change and sang along to entertainers calling for Mr. Thaksin's safe return.

It remained unclear over the weekend when a constitutional drafting assembly might begin.

Write to James Hookway at james.hookway@wsj.com

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